The letter is built in send negotiable securities on December 10, 2009 - 11 days hold a theme to be in Beijing " Wang Zhe returns " invested politic seminar 2010, discuss capital market to develop a tendency jointly with industry, seek invested an opportunity 2010. Sohu negotiable securities undertakes whole journey direct seeding, the letter in be below builds cast mechanical to the project industry 9 years to study report summary:
Demand of second half of the year restores gradually
Product sales volume adds main project machine fast like in anticipating, rise. Before 10 months, grab, fork-lift truck, bulldozer, automobile crane and forklift sales volume are added fast it is 10.96 ％ respectively, - 22.52 ％ , - 8.34 ％ , 18.43 ％ and - 25.76 ％ , compare respectively sales volume is added first half of the year fast rise 17, 10.1, 8.4, 16.2 with 10.8 percent, accord with us to anticipate.
Need to anabiosis more quickly inside, exit has improvement hard. Estate investment accelerates and capital construction investment maintains faster level to bring inside need to increase: Investment of estate of before 10 months grows 18.9 ％ , increasing ratio increases 9 percent first half of the year; The infrastructure such as public traffic of railroad, highway, city and irrigation works builds investment to maintain 50 ％ above add fast. But project machine exit did not anabiosis apparently, before association statistic data 3 quarters export 5.71 billion dollar, drop compared to the same period 44.6 ％ , drop extent increases 3.8 percent than first half of the year.
Entire industry profit has picked up at anticipating
According to the statistical data of machine classics net, project of construction of before this year 8 months achieves profit total with mechanical manufacturing industry twelve billion five hundred and sixty-three million yuan, grow 17.83 ％ compared to the same period, before increasing ratio 5 months increase 24.1 percent, good anticipate at us. Above all, industry sales revenue added 6 ～ August fast rise, before 8 months grow 8.95 ％ , before comparing 5 months increase 7.64 percent; Next, rolled steel price drops, gross profit of industry of before 8 months leads 17.51 ％ , before comparing 5 months rise 0.92 percent; Finally, the industry goes inventory changes plan apparent, manufactured goods is added fast fall from 26.56 ％ to 8.29 ％ , reduce capital to take up, during reducing fare level, charge leads 7.96 ％ during, under last year the corresponding period 1.07 percent.
Industry of predicting next year is added fast 15 ％ left and right sides
We predict grab, fork-lift truck, bulldozer, automobile crane and forklift sales volume are added this year fast it is 23.1 ％ respectively, - 14.9 ％ , 0.4 ％ , 26.1 ％ and - 19.1 ％ , achieve respectively next year 13.7 ％ , 8 ％ , 11.5 ％ , 3.7 ％ and 14 ％ . We predict income of entire this year industry is added fast total of 12 ％ , profit is added fast 25 ％ left and right sides; Achieve 15 ％ , 20 ％ respectively next year. 13 when pay close attention to mainly appear on the market income grows the company this year profit of 16.2 ％ , net grows 32.2 ％ , it is left and right sides of 18 ％ , 25 ％ respectively next year.
Continue to value machinery of grab, concrete, bulldozer and crane
Fork-lift truck is we see weak breed relatively, competition is intense, produce can superfluous, cardinal number bigger; Although forklift has similar feature, but exit space is large, prospect is good at fork-lift truck. Grab is we value breed for a long time, the entrance takes apparent consumption larger proportion, china and foreign countries of domestic sales volume, joint-stock occupy 70 ％ above. Concrete machinery is benefited apparently estate investment and capital construction investment, long-term prospect is valued. The market competition structure of bulldozer and automobile crane is finer, bibcock enterprise is had rate exceed 55 ％ , it is better to see bulldozer from the trend at automobile crane.
Next year investment opportunity comes from investment to drive anabiosis with exit
Investment of fixed assets of whole society of predicting next year is added fast maintain faster level, estate investment is added fast fast this year, in 25 ％ left and right sides; Capital construction investment is brisk still. Concrete machinery, crane, grab continue to be benefited, pay close attention to 31, in couplet and Xu Gong. In the meantime, we think the investment opportunity of next year basically comes from investment to pull move and exit anabiosises; We continue to value machinery of grab, concrete, bulldozer and automobile crane, the exit flexibility of forklift, bulldozer is the biggest at the same time; Proposal key pays close attention to 31, in couplet, join forces, hill is pushed and Xu is versed in.